President Donald Trump’s latest plan to end the Ukraine war is a calculated risk, betting entirely on two uncertain outcomes: achieving unity with the European Union and securing a victory at the Supreme Court. The plan itself involves a joint US-EU tariff of up to 100% on India and China to punish them for supporting Russia.
The first part of the bet is on the EU. The US has made it clear that it will not proceed with this radical trade action without European partnership, placing significant pressure on Brussels to align with Washington’s aggressive stance. This comes as Trump grows increasingly impatient with the war’s stalemate.
The second, and perhaps larger, part of the bet is on the Supreme Court. The court is poised to rule on the legality of the president’s tariff authority, a case the administration has consistently lost in lower courts. A loss would be financially catastrophic, forcing the US to refund tens of billions of dollars.
Despite these risks, the administration is pushing forward, viewing this as a potential game-changer. The strategy aims to disrupt the economic support network that has allowed Russia to continue its war, a network in which India and China are the most crucial players.